The Terrorist Sweepstakes

The recent Mega Million lottery, with a prize totaling $640 million, caused quite the stir as long lines of people crowded small bodegas and grocery stores for a chance to buy a winning ticket. Most people were aware the chances of winning were slim. Statisticians put the odds of winning at 1 in 176 million.

Three winning tickets were sold, but if you missed out on the lottery, the US State Department is giving you another chance at winning millions of dollars, and with slightly better odds. Wendy Sherman, under secretary of state for political affairs,  announced on Monday that the US government was offering a $10 million reward for information leading to the capture of Pakistani terrorist Hafiz Saeed.

If you were willing to buy a lottery ticket despite the poor odds of winning, you should also consider trying to track down Saeed in Pakistan. Compare the numbers:

• Odds of winning the Mega Millions:  1 in 176 million.
• Ratio of Saeed to the total population of Pakistan: 1 in 173 million

That’s a difference of 3 million in your favor. And if you’re still unconvinced, the State Department is increasing your odds. There is also a $2 million reward for information that leads to the arrest Saeed’s brother-in-law, Hafiz Abdul Rahman Makk.

The timing of Sherman’s announcement, just a few days after the Mega Millions lottery found three winners, reminded me of another lottery in the recently released movie “The Hunger Games.” There’s an oft repeated line in the first installment of the Suzanne Collins  trilogy repeated to the contestants of a gladiatorial-style game in which they must fight each other for survival: “May the odds be ever in your favor.”

Unfortunately, the odds look to be against the State Department and in Saeed’s favor.

Some good reads for today: May 28, 2010

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill may have taken all of your attention away from the various other problems facing this planet. Well, this is your reminder: We’re screwed!

Just kidding, but here are some articles that can help illuminate the other non-oil spill issues we face, and some of their solutions:

• Ground Zero Mosque: “We see it as a major step toward the Americanization of the Muslim community,” said Feisal Abdul Rauf, the imam who wants to build a mosque a few hundred feet from Ground Zero. Read Bret Stephens’ article on the planned cultural center and the outrage surrounding the plan here.
• More Border Issues: I’ve spent a lot of time on The Big Ben Theory discussing the fact that some pretty undesirable people are able to enter the US via air travel. The Mexican border has also posed a threat to our security. Dept. of Homeland Security officials issued an alert that Somali terrorists may be using the Mexican-US border to enter the US. Check out the Fox News article here. And if you don’t trust those crazy right-wingers, then read the shorter article from the Associated Press here.
• Interfaith Violence: The world is home is to well over a billion Muslims. Within that religion, there are many sects, and unfortunately that also means there is a lot violence between the different groups. Muslim vs. Muslim violence reared its ugly head again in Pakistan as over 50 were killed in Lahore, Pakistan, when the minority Ahmadi group was besieged at two mosques during prayer services. The Los Angeles Times describes the attack and some background to anti-Ahmadi discrimination in Pakistan. The New York Times “The Lede” blog offers some additional coverage. BBC News also tells us “Who are the Ahmadi?”.
• Arms Race: Israel’s in an arms race it simply can’t afford to lose against Iran. While Iran makes progress on its offensive missile program, Israel is always in need of more advanced missile defense systems. Israel is now unveiling its latest defensive missile, the Arrow 3. It can change its trajectory mid-flight, giving operators the chance to launch the missile interceptor before getting a clear idea of where their target missile is headed, saving valuable seconds. Ynet and the Jerusalem Post both covered the announcement of the planned tests for the Arrow 3 in 2011. For some background on the entire Middle East arms race, read an overview I wrote for the Australia/Israel Review. It explains the complexities of the defensive issues Israel faces vis-a-vis Iran.

Have a great Memorial Day weekend!

An illustration of Israel's Arrow 3 defensive missile.

In the Year 2000

Before the year 2000 came, Conan O’Brien had a bit in which he and a guest would don futuristic clothing and give ominous predictions for the “future” in the year 2000, even if the show was being tapped in late 1999. Audiences loved the bit, and it was even funnier when Conan continued this well into The Aughts.

I’d like to offer my own crazy, outlandish prediction for the year 2000: US security agents will have computers that will automatically alert them when a person on a no-fly list is on-board an aircraft.

I know, it’s ridiculous. I have dreamed of some sort of super-computer that can cross-reference passenger manifests with updated no-fly lists. This idea may be too crazy to even joke about, but I still would like to throw it out there.

The unfortunate reality is that security officials are still relying on manually checking passenger manifest lists for those on the no-fly list. Amid all the back-slapping for the “fast” apprehension of Times Square bomber Faisal Shahzad (the investigation took just 53 hours and 20 minutes) we’re losing sight of how authorities actually caught Faisal. The 53-hour investigation prompted New York Police Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly to boast that, “53 is a pretty good number“, but after reviewing what transpired, the security situation in the US is pretty bad.

The real story of how authorities captured Shahzad doesn’t sound like one filled with ruthless efficiency and great detective work. Once authorities concluded that Shahzad was a “person of interest” in the case, he was placed on the no-fly list. Yet seven hours later he was still able to purchase a ticket on Emirates Airlines with cash. He was able to board the plane, and just 20 minutes before the plane took off, US Customs and Border Protection officer Daniel Donohue happened to recognize Shahzad’s name on a passenger manifest list. Donohue then made a few calls and Shahzad was apprehended.

Authorities should not really be so pleased with themselves considering that Shahzad was 20 minutes away from making his escape to Pakistan via the United Arab Emirates. And the only reason he was caught is because Donohue “recognized a name”, according to the Daily News (kudos to my friend Scott for sending me this article).

I have written about the tremendous flaws in air travel security the past few weeks, but the apprehension of Shahzad shows just how far we need to overhaul the system. The fact that computers don’t automatically cross-reference the no-fly list with passenger manifests and automatically set off alarm bells is completely unacceptable. This is also in addition to Shahzad’s ability to purchase airline tickets seven hours after he was added to the no-fly list. Airlines were only required to review the no-fly list once every 24 hours, so quick-moving fugitives like Shahzad could escape under the radar. The US government needs to change the way they secure air travel, and they need to do it immediately. They can’t just wait for some super-computer to come along and save everyone in the distant future, in the year 2000…

Some good reads for today: May 7, 2010

It’s that time of week again. Get ready for the weekend by catching up on some great articles on death and destruction you may have missed this week:

Bret Stephens is so wise. This week, he pointed out the contradicting duties of the NYPD:

These are strange days for New York City’s finest. Over the weekend, they deployed in force to find the terrorist who tried to bomb Times Square. Yesterday, they deployed in force to protect the terrorist who is president of Iran. One of these guys works in propane, fireworks and gasoline; the other guy in enriched uranium, polonium triggers and ballistic missiles.

I wouldn’t miss the United Nations if it left town. New York City has enough traffic and terrorists and the removal of the UN would be great for reducing both problems. For Stephens’ full piece, click here. Yes, I do refer to his articles a lot. And no, I don’t have a man-crush on him; I’m just saying he’s really smart and his black and white WSJ sketch looks good. That’s it.

The New York Times put together a great timeline of Faisal Shahzad’s activity leading up to his attempted car bombing of Times Square last Saturday. Note that after his most recent trip to Pakistan he returned and almost immediately started planning his attack. He probably used the last trip to receive some training in Pakistan, which is what authorities believe as well. Here’s his unofficial timeline and a future reference for any terrorist reading my blog:

1. Buy pre-paid cell phone.
2. Use cell phone to buy used Nissan Pathfinder. Pay with cash.
3. Show new car off to friends and family.
4. Load new car with your new homemade bomb.
5. Don’t show new car with bomb to friends and family.
6. Drive car bomb to Times Square. Light the fuse. Change shirts.
7. Get added to no-fly list.
8. Wait seven hours.
9. Buy airline tickets to the United Arab Emirates using pre-paid cell phone (see Step 1). Use cash (see Step 2).

The most interesting event in this timeline, however, is that after Shahzad sold his Connecticut condominium in May 2004, the Joint Terrorism Task Force questioned the buyer about Shahzad and the sale. Was Shahzad on the radar this whole time? If so, his ability to travel back and forth to Pakistan is even more troubling. Here’s the Times’ timeline.

I love shopping on the Internet. So do terrorists. And so does the Marine Corps. Apparently it’s taken them a pretty long time to figure out that bombs can be made out of household goods. Did they only realize this after Najibullah Zazi used hair products as a bomb building material? You may know Zazi as the Beauty Parlor Bomber arrested last year for planning to blow up New York subways. (I love the media’s ability to think of catchy nicknames for the worst people/I hate the media. I’m still waiting for my nickname.) After Wired.com’s Danger Room leaked the Marine Corps’ weapon-acquisition exercise, the program was canceled. Read about it here.

Have a great weekend!

The Wall Street Journal's Bret Stephens

Dropping the Ball in Times Square

There is an unfortunate reality that has come to light with Saturday’s failed Times Square car bomb. As details emerge around the circumstances of Faisal Shahzad’s attempted attack, authorities have announced that Shahzad, a Pakistani-born American citizen, had traveled to Pakistan several times during the past few years and received terrorist training in the Waziristan region of Pakistan. He first arrived to the United States on a student visa, later becoming a naturalized citizen.

The pattern emerging is that terrorists are targeting highly trafficked locations in New York, as evidenced by the last two terrorists caught. (According to this Wall Street Journal timeline, New York has been targeted several times since 9/11.) Both plots involved players that were trained in Pakistan and were able to travel back into the US to carry out attacks.  The first such instance was in September 2009, when Najibullah Zazi and two others were arrested in the US for plotting to blow up subways in Grand Central Terminal and Times Square in New York. A fourth man was arrested last month in Pakistan for being a contact for Zazi. Zazi also received “military-style training” in a terrorist training camp in Pakistan in 2007 and came back to the US. Now it is also believed, as authorities charge, that Shahzad also received bomb-making training in Pakistan. And Shahzad got even closer in accomplishing his goal than Zazi’s group did as he was only arrested after the bomb was placed at his intended target.

A few things we take away from all this:

1. Porous borders – Would-be terrorists can come and go as they please from Pakistan back into the US as they acquire expertise and bomb-making materials. This isn’t the first instance of this problem, yet security forces haven’t curbed the inflow of those receiving training in the terrorist camps they’re trying to destroy in Pakistan. After the Shahzad incident, it is painfully obvious our borders and air security need to be completely overhauled. We let the wrong people in and out of the country and this needs to be fixed.
2. Afghanistan 2.0 – American officials initially dismissed claims from the Pakistani Taliban that they were responsible for the failed attack. However, as we have learned more about Shahzad, it seems this claim may not be as crazy as it sounds. Shahzad was trained in Pakistan, after being either recruited by a terrorist organization, or after proactively approaching one. Either way, it is clear now that Pakistan today is what Afghanistan was ten years ago. Terrorists plot and train for oversees operations within the territory. It’s become the new hub of global terrorism. The exportation of terrorists from Pakistan is alarming.
3. Active Cells – The Zazi group was made up of at least three men in the US, and a few in Pakistan that have been arrested. Shahzad, who claims he acted alone, also had acquaintances arrested in Pakistan. Unfortunately, it seems there are several active terrorist cells with the mission of targeting high-value targets in New York. We can hope that Zazi and Shahzad represent the last of them, but we have no idea who has been traveling in and out of New York.
4. No-Fly List? No Problem – Shahzad made his most recent trip back from Pakistan in February of this year.  Several persons on the no-fly list have been able to travel into the US in the past few years. Shahzad’s name was put on the no-fly list seven hours before he purchased his airline ticket to Dubai Monday evening. He was apprehended on-board the plane before it departed. Amazingly, he purchased his ticket with cash, the oldest trick in the book used by those seeking to avoid detection, and the ultimate red-flag raiser for security. Yet the addition of Shahzad to the no-fly list and the cash purchase of his ticket still got him close to escape. US President Barack Obama agreed to amend security protocols for air travel in September, supposedly bringing in a more efficient screening process. An April 1^st article from the New York Times states:

The system to be announced Friday replaces the mandatory screening — including full-body pat downs — that was hastily set up in January. Citizens of Afghanistan, Algeria, Lebanon, Libya, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Yemen, Cuba, Iran, Sudan and Syria have also been subjected to extra checks of their carry-on baggage before boarding planes for the United States.

Don’t get too hopeful about any successful changes to airline security. We can see a consistent theme of false hope in media reports on new measures to protect us in the air. For example, see the New York Times’ “Security Checks on Flights to Be Revamped” from April 1st, and yesterday’s “Government Tightens No-Fly Rules“. It’s like watching the evolution of a failed organism. The fact that Shahzad got close to that plane Monday shows that we have some serious “tightening” to do. The good news is that arch-terrorist Mikey Hicks, aged 8 years, still can’t fly.

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg said “We got lucky” Saturday when Shahzad’s car bomb failed to detonate. After the failed Times Square attack, the attempted downing of a Detroit flight on Christmas Day, and the apprehension of the Zazi group, we are getting very lucky in a lot of different places. The US and New York City are still in the terrorist’s crosshairs, and our security establishment needs to get better before our luck runs out.

Layout of Faisal Shahzad's Times Square Car Bomb (Source: Dept. of Justice)